Eight chapters. 28 guides. Whether you've never heard of a prediction market or you're already trading, start where you are and go as deep as you want.
What prediction markets are, how contracts work, why they exist, and what makes them fundamentally different from gambling or sports betting. Start here if you're new.
● BEGINNER — NO PRIOR KNOWLEDGE NEEDEDThe fundamentals: how YES/NO contracts work, what resolution means, and why you're trading probability — not opinion.
The life cycle of a prediction market contract — from opening price to settlement. What happens when you're right, what happens when you're wrong.
The house edge in sports betting is fixed and fixed against you. In prediction markets, the edge is created by other traders — and can be exploited.
The Favorite-Longshot Bias explained from first principles. The math that guarantees most participants will underperform before they place a single trade.
▶ Watch: Video #1 on YouTube →Full walkthroughs of both platforms, their structural differences, what each is best suited for, and how to claim your signup bonuses before you risk a dollar.
● BEGINNER — SETUP GUIDESBoth Kalshi and Polymarket offer signup bonuses through affiliate links. That's free starting capital before you risk anything. Claim yours here →
What Kalshi is, how CFTC regulation changes the game, the types of markets available, and a full account setup walkthrough.
How Polymarket's USDC-based system works, what markets it offers, and why it leads in political and macro event volume.
A direct comparison across market types, fees, regulation, liquidity, and strategy fit. The short answer: both. The long answer is in here.
Expected value, probability, crowd psychology biases, and why the math guarantees that most market participants are your edge — not your competition.
● INTERMEDIATE — MATH INVOLVED, EXPLAINED PLAINLYWhat EV is, how to calculate it for any contract, and why a trade with a lower win probability can be objectively better than one with a higher one.
The behavioral finance phenomenon that makes 5¢ longshot contracts the worst trades you can make — and the data proving it across 161,000 trades.
▶ Watch: Video #7 on YouTube →Why 72% of all Polymarket contracts resolve NO — and why that single statistic is the foundation of an entire trading system.
▶ Watch: Video #2 on YouTube →Partition Dependence, the Ignorance Prior, and narrative bias — how human psychology systematically misprices contracts and how to be on the other side.
The three foundational edges that work across platforms, week after week. The Free Donut, the 88-Cent Rule, and Maker execution. Learn these before anything else.
● INTERMEDIATE — PLATFORM ACCOUNT REQUIREDHow buying NO on opposing mutually exclusive market tails creates a guaranteed minimum payout floor. Step-by-step with real contract examples.
▶ Watch: Video #4 on YouTube →Why 88¢ is the exact mathematical threshold where EV and loss-recovery rate cross into positive territory on Kalshi weather contracts.
How taker fees drain $70 per 100 trades — and the single API parameter (post_only: true) that eliminates the drag entirely. The most mechanical improvement available.
▶ Watch: Video #10 on YouTube →Platform-specific playbooks for Kalshi — weather trading, bond harvesting, EMOS-anchored entries, and the Ignorance Prior play on center brackets.
● INTERMEDIATE — KALSHI ACCOUNT REQUIREDMarket types, bracket mechanics, how to read weather probability distributions, and the full Free Donut execution flow for weather contracts.
▶ Watch: Video #4 on YouTube →Systematic purchase of 90¢+ contracts — the math of "high yield" prediction market positions and how to manage Black Swan tail risk.
▶ Watch: Video #9 on YouTube →How professional meteorological ensemble models work, how to read ECMWF/GFS/NBM outputs, and how to use them as reference prices when the market panics.
▶ Watch: Video #8 on YouTube →Partition Dependence Bias explained — why markets systematically pull toward 1/N probability and why the 40% center bracket is consistently sold at a discount.
▶ Watch: Video #6 on YouTube →Platform-specific playbooks for Polymarket — the NO harvesting system, exploiting panic pricing, mean reversion entries, and political market mechanics.
● INTERMEDIATE — POLYMARKET ACCOUNT REQUIREDHow to build a repeatable income stream from the 72% NO resolution rate. Market selection criteria, sizing rules, and portfolio management for the NO harvester.
▶ Watch: Video #2 on YouTube →How to identify a Panic signal (20%+ move in under 2 hours), use Negative Serial Correlation to time entries, and ride the 58% reversal rate back to fair value.
▶ Watch: Video #3 on YouTube →How narrative cycles overprice and underprice political contracts, how to identify structural mispricings before major events, and risk management for binary outcomes.
The chapter most traders skip and the reason most traders blow up. Kelly Criterion, fractional sizing, drawdown limits, and the discipline that separates survivors from statistics.
● INTERMEDIATE — READ THIS BEFORE YOU SIZE UPThe Kelly Criterion explained simply. Why win rate without correct sizing is a time bomb — and how a single bad streak destroys flat bettors while Kelly traders survive.
▶ Watch: Video #7 on YouTube →How to calculate your position size for any contract given your bankroll and estimated edge. Using 1/4 Kelly as the survival standard — and when to go lower.
The psychological framework for treating losses as information, not failure. Why a well-sized loss is a strategy working correctly — and when a loss signals a problem.
Latency arbitrage, order book mechanics, adverse selection, and what it looks like when the math is automated. For traders who want to go further.
● ADVANCED — TRADING EXPERIENCE RECOMMENDEDThe 0x8dxd case study ($313 to $414k). The 30–90 minute window between ECMWF/GFS model updates and market repricing — and how to exploit it manually before automation.
▶ Watch: Video #5 on YouTube →Adverse Selection Risk, the 1¢/99¢ spread, and how institutional makers pick off retail traders during volatility. The mechanics of a rigged game — and how to play the other side.
▶ Watch: Video #10 on YouTube →API access on Kalshi and Polymarket, how to structure a basic automated strategy, and the minimum viable bot that handles order routing with post_only enforcement.
How to pull ECMWF, GFS, and NBM ensemble data, weight them using EMOS statistics, and feed the output into an automated entry decision engine.
Claim your signup bonus on Kalshi and Polymarket before you risk your own capital. That's free money from the platforms just for creating an account.